Monitoring of potato production and its forecast by 2020

Vladimir S. Osipov2,3, Tatiana V. Skryl1
1 Plekhanov Russian University of Economics, Moscow 117997, Russia
2 Russian State Agrarian University, Moscow 127550, Russia
3 MGIMO University, Moscow 119454, Russia

Abstract

Osipov, V., & Skryl, T. (2019).Monitoring of potato production and its forecast by 2020. Bulgarian Journal of Agricultural Science, 25(3), 448–453

The article attempts to make a forecast of potato production in the period until 2020 using economic and statistical tools. The problem of food security is revealed through the achievement of threshold values ​for the production and self-sufficiency of individual products. For the production of potatoes, the threshold value of food security is set at 95%. It is important to understand the prospects and opportunities to achieve the established threshold values. The conducted economic and statistical analysis showed that by 2020 gross potato harvest in Western Europe, especially in Russia, will be at the level of 30.2-35.5 mln t, and its yield, while maintaining current production conditions in the range of 164.4 to 177.4 centner/ha. The analysis showed that after the collapse of the Soviet Union, the former Soviet republics completely underwent a process of adaptation to market conditions. Thus, the Baltic countries drastically reduced the volumes of potato production in connection with the harmonization of their agrarian policy with the pan-European one.

Keywords: food safety; potatoes; gross potatoes; harvest; potato yield

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