Values of the Economic Risk Depending on the Agrometeorologic Conditions in Growing Soft Winter Wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) on Calcareous Chernozem in Northwestern Bulgaria

M. STAMBOLIEV, M. ANGELOVA, E. DAVIDKOV, D. GEORGIEV, I. HRISTOV, V. ANGELOVA and P. PETROV
Regional Centre for Scientific Application Service Vratza, Branch Experimental Station, BG-3600 Lom, Bulgaria

Abstract

STAMBOLIEV, M., M. ANGELOVA, E. DAVIDKOV, D. GEORGIEV, I. HRISTOV, V. ANGELOVA, and P. PETROV. 2004. Values of the economic risk depending on the agrometeorologic conditions in growing soft winter wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) on calcareous chernozem in northwestern Bulgaria. Bulg. J. Agric. Sci., 10: 603-610

In this paper we have analyzed the limits of money values which express the economic risk proceeding from the growth of wheat within the region of the calcareous chernozem in Northwestern Bulgaria. The purpose of the present study has been to develop and apply a practical method for the establishment of this risk, particularly in those local regions where up to the moment there is no adapted imitation model. By using a multifactor linear regression equation on the basis of the really obtained yields from wheat in the course of 33 years we followed their variation for a 68-year period depending on precipitation and temperatures. By comparing the yields produced during the investigated period, the average results of the local production costs and purchase prices for the recent 5 years (1999-2003) we illustrated the probability limits for losses from its production and also the realization of different profit percentages. Differences between the theoretical and the experimentally established probabilities do not exceed 5.7 %.

Key words: wheat, agrometeorological data, yields, economic risk